The TXCPG Brief Newsletter
2026 Nov - The TXCPG Brief Newsletter
The TXCPG Brief
The Brief is TXCPG’s guiding light—connecting Texans with insights, resources, and advocacy to reduce the harms of problem gambling. Through this newsletter, we aim to bring clarity to a complex and often overlooked public health issue, offering timely updates, research highlights, and practical tools that support prevention, treatment, and recovery efforts across the state.
Each edition of The Brief will serve as a central hub for our members, partners, and stakeholders—featuring stories of impact, policy developments, and opportunities to get involved. By sharing knowledge and amplifying voices from across Texas, we hope to strengthen collaboration, inspire action, and build a more informed and compassionate response to problem gambling in our communities.
Our sponsors will get this e-newsletter as part of their benefits package. To become a donor, please visit our Donations page.
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets: Stocks or Gambling
By Jerry Bauerkemper & Carol Ann Maner
Over the last 40 years, the ways and places a person could gamble has grown exponentially. In the 1990s and 2000s lotteries and bingo dominated the gambling world. Today, resort casinos, sports betting, and a wide range of gambling apps are center stage. For many years, the stock market distinguished itself from recreational gambling as business-like investing.
However, the line between gambling and investing has been blurred as prediction markets burst onto the scene. Kalshi, Polymarket, and even Robinhood, offer individuals the opportunity to invest in the outcome of all manner of events that they predict will occur in the future. But rather than predicting the price of pork bellies or soybeans on traditional futures markets, which are regulated by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), individuals “investing” on prediction markets are predicting the outcome of an Oscar nomination, the number of strikeouts in a college baseball game, or the start of a war – all of which are currently unregulated.
Seeing potential in states that have not yet allowed sports betting, Fan Duel and Draft Kings have entered the predictions market by offering contracts on sporting events. In 2025, 90% of Kalshi prediction markets revenue came from contracts on sporting events.1 This year Kalshi anticipates their overall revenues from prediction markets may reach $20 billion.2
Currently, only two states, Massachusetts and Nevada, have placed regulations on prediction markets. Nevada is requiring this to be regulated as with other gaming. In this way, both states have prevented prediction markets from serving as de facto unregulated sports betting.
Finally, prediction markets currently fall into a grey legal area. In many ways, the fact that they are unregulated – and therefore, legal - may be due simply to their novelty and rapid development in a virtual, AI-assisted environment. Public policymaking is understandably more deliberative – and therefore takes more time than virtual innovation. While Texas Coalition on Problem Gambling (TXCPG) is neutral on legalized gambling, we advocate on behalf of all who are affected by problem gambling in Texas. That said, TXCPG cannot ignore the obvious gambling behaviors, risk, and harms associated with prediction markets. If prediction markets are not illegal, then we believe they should be regulated to mitigate any potential harms.
1 Lichenberg, N. (2026). “America’s new love affair with gambling drives Kalshi to $871 million haul on Super Bowl Sunday.” Fortune. https://fortune.com/2026/02/10/kalshi-super-bowl-sunday-871-million-sports-gambling-michael-lewis-warning/
2 Clark, K., Dugan, K. T. (2026). “Kalshi and Polymarket are each eyeing roughly $20 billion valuations.” The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/finance/kalshi-and-polymarket-are-each-eyeing-roughly-20-billion-valuations-d7b9c5d8
Welcome LV Sands as a Foundational donor
We are proud to welcome Las Vegas Sands as a Foundational Partner to the Texas Coalition on Problem Gambling. Their leadership and commitment to addressing problem gambling reflect a meaningful investment in the health and well-being of individuals, families, and communities across Texas. This partnership helps lay the foundation for a comprehensive, statewide response—advancing awareness, prevention, and access to care for those affected by gambling-related harms.
Federal Prediction Market regulation updates / POINTS Act
Update 1: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has initiated a rulemaking process for prediction markets, opening a public comment period through April 30. NCPG plans to submit comments emphasizing consumer protections, responsible gambling, and the need for strong regulatory frameworks, though the final impact of these rules remains uncertain.
Additionally, the CFTC issued an advisory signaling its authority to restrict certain types of markets and raising concerns about potential manipulation. This suggests the agency may take a more active role in overseeing and regulating permissible market activities moving forward.
Update 2: H.R. 7875, Providing Opportunities for Individuals in Need of Treatment and Support, the POINTS Act of 2026, currently before the House Energy & Commerce Committee, would establish a federal grant program to help states like Texas build a comprehensive response to problem gambling. As access to online and cross-border gambling expands, the bill would support prevention, treatment, public awareness, and coordination with national resources—especially benefiting rural and underserved communities. With millions of Americans affected and no dedicated federal funding currently in place, this legislation addresses a critical gap by using existing sports betting tax revenue to strengthen behavioral health infrastructure without creating new taxes.
Meet the TXCPG Board of Directors
The Texas Coalition on Problem Gambling (TXCPG) is proud to introduce our Board of Directors, a dedicated group of individuals committed to advancing awareness, education, prevention, treatment, and recovery support for those affected by problem gambling across Texas.
Our Board brings together diverse backgrounds, professional expertise, and a shared commitment to strengthening communities and reducing the individual, family, and societal impacts of problem gambling.
Through their leadership, guidance, and advocacy, our Board members help advance TXCPG's mission to unite and coordinate stakeholders throughout Texas in developing comprehensive policies, programs, and services for individuals and families affected by problem gambling.
We invite you to get to know the individuals who generously contribute their time, experience, and passion to guiding TXCPG's work and building a healthier future for all Texans.
Announcing Texas version of Evive
We are excited to announce the Texas launch of Evive, an innovative digital platform designed to support individuals impacted by problem gambling. This Texas-specific version of Evive expands access to trusted resources, education, and tools that promote early intervention and recovery. By bringing Evive to Texas, we are strengthening our commitment to providing accessible, effective support for individuals, families, and communities across the state.
Texas is a big place!
Your donation to TXCPG helps prevent and reduce the effects of gambling harms across the state.